Each Phase 2 conviction pick is scored across five dimensions
(1–5 each, total out of 25). A higher total reflects a more concrete,
contract-backed link to the theme — not a stronger price prediction.
1. Directness of supply linkage
How concrete and durable is the link from this company's revenue to the theme's demand anchors?
- 5
- Locked & central — signed multi-year offtake; prime supplier of a named anchor (e.g. 20-year PPA with Microsoft). Revenue visibility lives in the contract itself.
- 4
- Strong — multi-year framework or capacity reservation; selected as qualified / preferred supplier; meaningful purchase order disclosed.
- 3
- Real but soft — single announced agreement, MOU or partnership; qualifies them but doesn't yet move FY revenue.
- 2
- Implied — sells into the right vertical and has named it in filings, but no contract has been publicly cited.
- 1
- Speculative — positioned to win, but no contract evidence yet.
2. Theme revenue concentration
What share of the company's revenue is actually exposed to the theme? A 100% pure-play scores higher than a giant where the theme is 5% of revenue — thematic moves drive more of the stock.
- 5
- Pure-play (>75% theme-exposed revenue)
- 4
- Dominant exposure (40–75%)
- 3
- Meaningful (15–40%)
- 2
- Minor (5–15%)
- 1
- Incidental (<5%)
3. Size of addressable demand
How big is the theme-driven dollar pull-through this company can realistically capture? Account for capacity, market share, and competition.
- 5
- Theme-driven TAM in their segment is >10× current revenue and they're a tier-1 capacity holder.
- 4
- 5–10× TAM/revenue, top-3 share.
- 3
- 2–5×, top-5 share.
- 2
- <2×, marginal share.
- 1
- Capacity-constrained or commoditised — can't capture much.
4. Balance sheet & execution capacity
Can they execute on the opportunity without diluting? Sourced from penny snapshot.
- 5
- Profitable, net cash, executing visibly (recent capex announced & funded; backlog growing).
- 4
- Profitable, low debt; executing.
- 3
- Profitable or adequately funded; executing.
- 2
- Marginal profitability or rising leverage, but funded.
- 1
- Cash-burn that requires equity raises; execution at risk.
5. Catalyst momentum
What's happened in the last 6–12 months that confirms the thesis is playing out now, not in the abstract?
- 5
- Multiple recent positive catalysts (contract wins, capacity expansions, new customers, regulatory approvals).
- 4
- One major recent catalyst + supporting context.
- 3
- Thesis-confirming news flow but no single major event.
- 2
- Thesis intact but recent news is quiet.
- 1
- Recent news is negative or thesis is contested.